Above-average number of pensioners, Latinos and undecided: The voter groups in the US state of Florida are not only very diverse, but could also be decisive for the election. The “swing state” is the focus of election night. If it was up to the performances and the volume of the fans, Florida would go to Donald Trump. Supporters of the US president have been decorating the streets and waterways of Florida with “Trump 2020” posters for weeks. Much to the delight of the incumbent. Because he knows: For a second term in office he needs the votes in the “swing state”. According to the polls, his challenger Joe Biden is just ahead in Florida. Shortly before the end he received prominent support there again. Former US President Barack Obama called on Monday at an event in Florida to vote out Trump. Of his former vice president, Obama said, “He made me a better president.”

Should the people follow this election recommendation, Trump could probably forget a continuation of his presidency: Without Florida, he is almost certain to be defeated. In addition, for almost 100 years no Republican has been able to win the US election without winning the “Sunshine State”. Reason enough for Trump to bet everything on Florida. The US president even registered his residence there and hopes for a home advantage. A defeat in Florida would also be painful for Biden. But he could make up for it by winning four other highly competitive swing states from the Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin group.

Hardly contested groups of voters

Florida is considered a retirement paradise. As a result, retirees are part of the state’s highly sought-after electorate. While Trump was still 9 percentage points ahead of Clinton in the seniors’ category shortly before the 2016 election, Biden clearly leads the “pensioner survey” this year with 27 points. Trump has lost the trust of the elderly, especially in dealing with the corona pandemic. Although the president regularly affirmed that he wanted to protect “his seniors”, the number of infections and deaths made voters question his crisis management. During his appearances in Florida, Biden tries to remind the older electorate of the danger of Trump’s corona policy: “You are expendable. You are nobody. This is how Trump sees you!”

In Florida, the votes of the Latinos could be decisive.

In addition to the senior citizens, the votes of voters with Latin American roots are of particular importance in Florida. After Trump’s tough migration policy and his recurring harsh and racist remarks about Hispanics, one should actually think that one of the 32 million Latinos in the USA is not sure of a single voice. But things are different in Florida. The Latino electorate there has traditionally been very conservative. Many of them are staunch supporters of Donald Trump. The reasons for this run deep: on the one hand, almost a third of the Latinos eligible to vote in Florida have Cuban roots. After fleeing the communist Castro regime, the Cubans in exile see Trump primarily as the anti-socialist. On the other hand, religion also plays a major role. Most Latinos are strict Catholics and support the Republican position on abortion.

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