For a long, long time it looked like support for US President Trump was stable – like his lag behind challenger Biden in election polls. Then October begins. If Donald Trump’s campaigners were allowed to choose one reality, it would probably look like this: As in 2016, Democrats stay at home on November 2nd out of frustration over a dubious candidate. Republicans, meanwhile, can count on Trump’s core electorate, frustrated whites with no college degrees; they are again showing the enthusiasm necessary to keep “their” president in office for another four years, and convincing enough fickle ones that only Trump could get the economy going again. But this scenario does not look like two weeks before the election in the USA. On the contrary, Trump’s challenger increased his poll lead among registered voters in the crucial October. On the national average, the Democrat Joe Biden is now around 10 percent ahead of the President, around three percent more than in September. Trump is also lagging slightly behind in several contested states that are crucial for the outcome of the election.
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It is possible that, as in 2016, the Democrats see the election as almost won and Trump will repeat his triumph with the help of angry, former non-voters. But there are several things that speak against it. In this election campaign, for example, most of the polling institutes interviewed proportionally more people with lower educational qualifications. If the situation were similar to four years ago, Trump’s results should be better. The opposite is the case. At the same time before the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton was about four percent less than Biden’s current lead. The leap that Biden’s polls made earlier this month was seen after the first televised debate, when Trump was constantly cheating on both the Democrats and the host of conservative news broadcaster Fox News. That could have put fickle voters into doubt. In addition, there was the realization that the USA was up to its ears in the crisis mire: The corona virus reached well-known Republicans, the White House and also the President himself. Trump was supplied with oxygen, his health was so critical. Since then, Trump has tried in vain to gain an electoral advantage from his contagion, to sell the threat as an outside threat and thereby point it to others. A difficult undertaking: How can he solve the crisis for others if he doesn’t even manage to keep the virus away from himself, his leadership circle and his family? The president bears joint responsibility for the corona crisis in the country because he did not see it as a deadly danger, but for months as a news cycle for his self-promotion, a Republican senator recently rumbled at a question and answer session with voters.

Reminders from the campaign chief

October, which has so far been disastrous for Trump, seems like a logical development of the previous election campaign: At the beginning of the year it was not even certain that Joe Biden would even run for the Democrats, the Democrat was already slightly ahead of the President in polls. Now that the corona crisis has robbed the president of his big re-election argument, the good economic situation, things look even worse for him.

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In terms of donations, it can be observed that the prospect of getting Trump out of office is evidently mobilizing more and more Democrats. For example, when the liberal Chief Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died and it was not clear whether the Republicans would manage to replace her with a Conservative, more Americans donated to Biden than before. He now has a lot more money in the campaign fund than Trump. So everything is safe for Biden? Not from the point of view of his election campaigners. In an internal circular, campaign director Jen O’Malley warns Dillon against complacency: “While we have a solid lead nationally, we are only three percent ahead in states like Arizona and North Carolina, on which we count for the victory,” quoted the US Magazine “The Hill” them. Even the best polls could turn out to be wrong, which is why the election campaign must be led as if you were behind. Even in the hotly contested and important Florida, the survey results point to a head-to-head race.

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Trump’s election victory four years ago was narrow and only succeeded because of the Electoral College, the electoral system. Despite a lack of enthusiasm, Clinton won most of the votes, but they were not enough. This time around, the Democrats are trying to convince their voters to vote by mail, which is already underway. 233 million Americans are eligible to vote, over 80 million postal ballot papers have been requested according to the University of Florida and therefore almost 27 million votes have already been cast across the country. There is a tendency for more Democrats to vote by letter than Republicans. It is true that it is important to be more careful with forecasts than with survey results; However, they both undoubtedly show one development: Trump’s chance of victory is currently only 13 percent, estimates the statistics portal “FiveThirtyEight”, as low as never before. At the end of September it was still over 20 percent. Biden’s election campaign boss does not reassure him either. One should not underestimate Donald Trump or his ability to fight his way back in the last few days, she warns: “Through whatever dirty campaign or underhand tactics.”

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