Why is the British Prime Minister conducting the Brexit negotiations as if he wanted to hit them against the wall? Insiders assume that Johnson has a clever plan: He is waiting for a US election winner Trump to close a deal with him. He then wants a hard Brexit with the EU. But Johnson disagrees. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has denied claims that he would delay negotiations on a Brexit trade pact with the EU until the US election. President Donald Trump is a Brexit supporter, while his Democratic challenger Joe Biden is more fond of the European Union. On speculation that he would only announce a possible no-deal Brexit if Trump were to become president again, Johnson said: “These are two very different things.” He is happy that both sides are back at the same table in the Brexit negotiations.

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“We’ll see what the talks bring,” the Prime Minister told journalists during a visit to the Royal Berkshire Hospital in Reading, west of London. His remarks related mainly to a report by the Observer over the weekend, according to which Johnson allegedly wanted to wait for the result of the US presidential election on November 3rd. If Trump were to win the election, Johnson would immediately sign a trade deal between the United States and Great Britain. According to a British government spokesman, London and Brussels are now “in an intensive phase of negotiations” on a Brexit trade pact. The talks had barely progressed so far, and London even left the negotiating table in the meantime. If a deal is not reached, tariffs and other trade barriers threaten. The Brexit transition phase, in which practically everything has stayed the same, will come to an end in around two months.

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Export slump, inflation, wave of bankruptcies: According to a study, a hard Brexit without a trade agreement with the European Union would have many negative consequences for Great Britain. This put up to 15 percent of British exports to the EU at risk, threatening losses of almost 14 billion euros, according to the study by credit insurer Euler Hermes. “A tough exit in addition to the Covid-19 pandemic and the already difficult economic situation would hit Great Britain itself very hard,” said the head of macroeconomics at the Euler Hermes Group, Ana Boata. In the event of a hard exit, she expects a renewed recession in Great Britain in the coming year, in which the gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to collapse by five percent. The rate of inflation is likely to be above the five percent mark, mainly due to the sharp rise in import prices of 15 percent and a devaluation of the British pound of ten percent against the euro. The British would have to put significantly more money on the table in the future for shoes, hats or umbrellas, for example. Experts from Euler Hermes predict that the prices for these goods will rise by around 20 percent. Textiles, food and drinks, alcohol, tobacco and vinegar are also likely to cost significantly more.

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