Trump’s campaign talk of troop withdrawals does not match military reality
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When President Donald Trump said on Twitter last week that all U.S. troops in Afghanistan might be home by Christmas, he was reiterating a goal that has eluded him for years — and most likely hoping that when it comes to ending military deployments, voters will give him more credit for his messaging than for his results.
Trump has long vowed to leave Afghanistan and, more broadly, to conclude what he calls the United States’ “endless wars” across the Middle East, reviving a core theme from his 2016 campaign that some data suggests could have played a crucial role in his election.
But with three months left in his first term, Trump has not welcomed home the last American soldier from anywhere. While he has withdrawn thousands of troops from Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, thousands more still risk their lives there — a source of clear frustration for a president hoping to impress voters with unequivocal, unprecedented results.
And although his defenders insist he deserves credit for avoiding any major new U.S. interventions, making him the first president in decades to do so, Trump has deployed thousands of additional soldiers to the Persian Gulf in response to growing tensions with Iran, which some analysts warn could spill into a hot war if he is reelected. He has also done little to scale down major U.S. military bases in places like Qatar and Bahrain.
“The missing piece here is that tens of thousands of forces are deployed all across the Middle East, supporting ongoing operations in the region and beyond,” said Dana Stroul, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “The president has even increased the U.S. military presence in Saudi Arabia. None of those forces have been withdrawn over the course of his term. His rhetoric does not match the reality of U.S. forces deployed across the Middle East today.”
Still, Trump believes that even the perception of progress toward removing most Americans from harm’s way overseas will help his chances of reelection on an “America First” platform. He and his campaign surrogates have repeated that message at every turn, from his rallies to the Republican National Convention in August to his Twitter account.
“I’m bringing our troops back from Afghanistan. I’m bringing our troops back from Iraq. We’re almost out of almost every place,” he said during a town hall event in September that was broadcast on ABC News. At a campaign rally more than a week later, the president vowed to “keep America out of these endless, ridiculous, stupid foreign wars in countries that you’ve never even heard of.”
He reprised the theme in a tweet hours before returning to the White House from Walter Reed National Military Medical Center last week. “PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH (BRING OUR SOLDIERS HOME). VOTE!” Trump wrote as the world obsessed over his coronavirus diagnosis.
Trump now presides over about 10,000 ground troops in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria combined, only slightly less than the number he inherited at the end of the Obama administration. Deployments ordered by Trump caused that number to rise as high as 26,000 by late 2017, according to a Pentagon report, before falling steadily in recent months.
After President Barack Obama left just under 10,000 troops in Afghanistan, Trump ordered about 3,000 more to the country in 2017 before beginning a drawdown that has resulted in about 4,500 there today. He also increased troop levels in Syria, where U.S. forces have battled the Islamic State group, from about 500 under Obama to nearly 2,500 before dropping to a current level of 750. In Iraq, troop numbers were virtually unchanged from the end of the Obama era until last month, when the Pentagon said it would cut nearly half its forces there, to 3,000.
Denouncing and vowing to end foreign interventions was a potent message four years ago, according to a June 2017 academic study, which found “a significant and meaningful relationship between a community’s rate of military sacrifice and its support for Trump” in the 2016 election. The study’s authors, Douglas Kriner of Cornell University and Francis Shen of the University of Minnesota Law School, concluded that if three states narrowly carried by Trump — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — “had suffered even a modestly lower casualty rate, all three could have flipped from red to blue and sent Hillary Clinton to the White House.”
Former Vice President Joe Biden makes for a less useful foil than did Clinton, however. Although Biden also supported the Iraq War, he is less closely associated with the conflict than Clinton was. Biden was also a skeptic of subsequent military actions, arguing inside the Obama administration against a troop surge in 2009 for Afghanistan and opposing the U.S. intervention in Libya in 2011.
On his campaign website, Biden focuses his foreign policy platform on rebuilding the United States from within through measures like education reform, more humane immigration policies and voting rights protections. Echoing Trump, Biden also promises to “end the forever wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East, which have cost us untold blood and treasure,” saying he “will bring the vast majority of our troops home from Afghanistan and narrowly focus our mission on al-Qaida and ISIS.”
Perhaps seeking a clearer contrast with his opponent, Trump upped the ante last week, surprising senior military and civilian officials with an evening tweet accelerating his timeline for a U.S. exit from Afghanistan.
“We should have the small remaining number of our BRAVE Men and Women serving in Afghanistan home by Christmas!” Trump wrote Wednesday, seeming to undercut a February agreement with the Taliban that committed the United States to a full withdrawal by next May only if the Afghan insurgent group met important conditions. The tweet also came just hours after Trump’s national security adviser, Robert O’Brien, told an audience that the United States would reduce its forces to 2,500 by early next year.
The White House had no official comment, but a senior administration official speaking on background said that Trump had made a clear statement and that the government was obliged to carry out the commander in chief’s wishes.
Senior military officials, however, say they have received no formal orders to reduce U.S. forces in Afghanistan beyond 4,500 by the end of November.
Philip Gordon, who served as the coordinator for the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf region in the Obama administration, called the tweet evidence that political impulses, not strategic thinking, were behind Trump’s management of the military.
“You can’t give him credit for successfully handling the drawdown. It’s been chaotic and inconsistent and completely unpredictable,” Gordon said. He recalled the way Trump had repeatedly vowed to withdraw the modest contingent of U.S. forces from Syria, forcing Pentagon planners to scramble for solutions that have preserved a few hundred troops meant to counter Russian and Iranian influence, although Trump boasts that the troops are now there to “keep the oil.”
“It’s too few troops to achieve anything there — and it’s just enough to get in trouble, as we’ve seen with the recent dust-ups between U.S. and Russian forces on patrols,” said Ed King, president and founder of Defense Priorities, a nonpartisan Washington group that calls for a smaller U.S. military presence overseas. After seven U.S. service members were injured when their armored vehicle was rammed by a Russian one in August, the Pentagon sent another 100 soldiers to the country, increasing the U.S. total there to 750.
King expressed disappointment that Trump had not made more progress toward removing all U.S. troops from combat zones. But he placed much of the blame on others, like Trump’s former national security adviser John Bolton, and added that “the hope is, with the right personnel who can implement some of the rhetorical aims that Trump has voiced, that some of these policies might actually come to fruition.”
But others warn that in a second Trump term, the opposite could be true.
Gordon, author of a new book about failed U.S. efforts to achieve “regime change” in the Middle East, said that the president’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran was unlikely to topple the country’s government or force it to abandon its nuclear program. That could leave a reelected Trump forced to use military action to prevent an Iranian bomb.
“And that would be the end of the end of the ‘forever wars,’” Gordon said.
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BR 01, DRG
(BTTB 2120)
BR 23 1003, DR
(Zeuke 159 / 77,
545 / 77) BR 23 1111, DR
(BTTB 2110)
BR 23, DR
(BTTB, aus "Touristen Express"-Set))
br35_1111
BR 35 1111-0, DR
(BTTB 2110)
br56
BR 56 2719, DR
(BTTB 2230) G 8.2, Nr. 2721, KPEV
(BTTB 2231)
br81_013dr_zeuke_schw_rahmen br81_001rt_rahmen_plast br81_004
BR 81 013, DR
(Zeuke 159 / 51,
545 / 51) BR 81 001, DR
(BTTB 2210)
BR 81 004, DRG
(BTTB 2210)
BR 81 004, DB
(BTTB 2211)
BR 81, DR
vereinfachte Steuerung
(Zeuke 159 / 78)
br86_1615_3 br86_460
BR 86 1615-5, DR
(BTTB 2240) BR 86 460, DRG
(BTTB 2242) BR 86 173, DB
(BTTB 2241) Reihe 455, CSD
(BTTB 2244)
br 92 zeuke br 92_6582 bttb_rt_rahmen br92
BR 92 6582, DR
(Zeuke 545 / 494) BR 92 6582, DR
(BTTB 2220) BR 92 als Privatbahn (BTTB
(BTTB, aus Start-Set) BR 92 als Nord-Belge (BTTB, aus Start-Set)
start_tenderlok_schw.jpg (41542 Byte)
2achsige Tenderlok, schwarz
(BTTB, aus Start-Set) 2achsige Tenderlok, grün
(BTTB, aus Start-Set)
v36_071grau v36_071dr_gn
V 36 071, DR, grau
(Zeuke 545 / 23,
BTTB 2631) V 36 071, DR, grün
(Zeuke 545 / 22)
V 36 021, DR, grün
(BTTB 2630)
BR 103 021-2, DR, grün
(BTTB 2630)
br103gelb.jpg (62757 Byte) v36_265db_rt.jpg (56714 Byte)
BR 103 033-7, DR, gelb
(BTTB 2631) V 36 255, DB, rot
(BTTB 2632) V 36, DB, schwarz
(BTTB) Y 50, SNCF, grün
(BTTB 2634)
zeuke_v75 zeuke_t435
V 75 001, 1. Ausführung
DR, rot
(Zeuke 545 / 53) T 435 001,
1. Ausführung
CSD, blau,
weißes Geländer
(Zeuke 545 / 52)
br107_001_0 t435 t435
BR 107 001-0, DR, rot
(BTTB 2620)
T 435 001, CSD, blau
schwarzes Geländer
(BTTB 2621) T 435 040, CSD, blau
weißes Geländer
(BTTB 2621)
ym32_125
YM 32-205 , SZD, grün
(BTTB 2622) YM 32-125; SZD, grün
(BTTB 2622)
br110 br110_156 gelb br212_176_2db_rt
BR 110 034-7, DR, rot
(BTTB 2540) BR 110 156-7, DR, gelb
(BTTB 2545) BR 211 167-2, DB, blau
(BTTB 2546) BR 212 176-2, DB, rot
(BTTB 2547)
v180_146 br118_114_8
V180 160, DR
rot / elfenbein
(Zeuke 545 / 750) V 180 146, DR
rot / elfenbein
(BTTB 2520) BR 118 146-0, DR
rot / creme
(BTTB 2522) BR 118 114-8, DR
rot / creme
(BTTB 2522)
BR 119 120-4, DR
(BTTB 2521)
br130dr
BR 130 007-8, DR
(BTTB 2640) T 679, CSD
(BTTB 2641)
br221rot br221_137_3blau_beige v200ic_rt_beige_rt
V 200 139, DB
rot / grau
(Zeuke 159 / 76,
545 / 26)
BR 221 139-9, DB
rot / silbergrau
(BTTB 2510)
BR 221 137-5, DB
blau / beige
(BTTB 2511)
BR 221, DB
rot / beige
(BTTB 2512)
v200 cccp v200 silverlines
V 200 "CCCP"
silber / rot
(Zeuke ) V 200 "Silver Lines"
silber / blau
(Zeuke ) V 200
braun
(Zeuke, aus Start-Set) V 200, SJ
braun
(BTTB, aus Start-Set)
t334rt t334 t334dsb
T 334, CSD, rot
(Zeuke 545 / 502) T 334 0508, CSD, blau
(Zeuke 545 / 501) T 334, CSD, grün / weiß
(BTTB 2610) MH, DSB, grün
(Zeuke 545 / 503)
t334gn_elf_start2a
T 334, 2achsig
blau / creme
(Zeuke (, aus Start-Set) T 334, 2achsig
grün / elfenbein
(Zeuke
(BTTB, aus Start-Set)
noab_mav_neu noab_dsb_bttb noab_sncb
M 61 001, MAV, weinrot
(Zeuke 545 / 9,
BTTB 2532) M 61 019, MAV, rot
(BTTB 2532)
My 1125, DSB, weinrot
(Zeuke 545 / 8,
BTTB 2531) R 202 003, SNCB, grün
(BTTB 2533)
start_taigatrommel
2achsige Diesellok
ähnlich DR-BR 120, rot
(BTTB, aus Start-Set) 2achsige Diesellok
ähnlich DR-BR 120, grün
(BTTB, aus Start-Set)
vt2_09_dach_beige
VT 2.09.070
Dach beige
(Zeuke)
Beiwagen VB 02,
Dach beige
(Zeuke)
VT 2.09.070 + VB,
Dach grau
(Zeuke 545 / 1,
BTTB 2810) Beiwagen VB 02,
Dach grau
(Zeuke ,
BTTB 2812)
br171_vb vb171
BR 171 018-5
Dach grau
(BTTB 2810) Beiwagen BR 171 824-6,
Dach grau
(BTTB 2812)
transius_rt_ws_2tlg
SVT "Courier", 2teilig
rot / weiß
(Zeuke) SVT "Courier", 2teilig
weiß / rot
(Zeuke) SVT "Courier", 2teilig
weiß / blau
(Zeuke 545 / 34)
Die Diesel-Schnelltriebwagen Elektro-Triebzug Fahrtrafo
SVT "Intourex", 3teilig
weiß / blau
(Zeuke 545 / 37)
ET "Transitus", 3teilig, weiß / blau
(Zeuke 545 / 35) ET "Transitus", 3teilig, grün / gelb
(Zeuke 545 / 35)
Mittelwagen für "Courier", Transitus", "Intourex";
rot / weiß
(Zeuke) Mittelwagen für "Courier", Transitus", "Intourex";
weiß / blau
(Zeuke) Mittelwagen für "Courier", Transitus", "Intourex"
weiß / rot
(Zeuke) Mittelwagen für "Courier", Transitus", "Intourex"; grün / gelb
(Zeuke)
e11_022dach_beige.jpg (55398 Byte) e11_022rt.jpg (64664 Byte)
E 11 022, DR
grün, Dach beige
(Zeuke 545 / 754)
E 11 015, DR
grün, Dach grau
(Zeuke 545 / 754,
BTTB) E 11 022, DR
rot
(Zeuke / BTTB 2322)
BR 211 018-7, DR
rot
(BTTB 2322)
e42_018
E 42, DR,
grün, Dach beige
(Zeuke 545 / 755) E 42 018, DR
grün, Dach grau
(Zeuke 545 / 755,
BTTB 2321) BR 242 020-6, DR
grün, Dach grau
(BTTB 2321) BR 242 018-2, DR
grün, Dach grau
(BTTB 2321)
E 70 01, DR, braun
(Zeuke / Herr 545 / 25, 545 / 2 / 2)
E 70 01, DR, grün
beschriftet
(Zeuke / Herr 545 / 24) E 70, DR, grün,
unbeschriftet
(Zeuke / Herr) E 70 01, DR, grau
(Zeuke / Herr)
e94zeuke br254_065_6 br194db
E 94 065, DR, grün
(Zeuke 545 / 751) BR 254 065-6, DR, grün
(BTTB 2410) BR 194 178-0, DB, blau
(BTTB 2411) Reihe 1020 020, ÖBB, rot
(BTTB 2412)
br250
BR 250 112-0, DR, bordeauxrot
(BTTB 2330) BR 250 245-8, DR, hellrot
(BTTB 2331)
e499blau_bttb e499g e499 szd
E 499 035, CSD
blau / elfenbein
(Zeuke 545 / 20,
Zeuke 545 / 752 / 1,
BTTB 2312) E 499 035, CSD
grün / elfenbein
(Zeuke 545 / 21,
Zeuke 545 / 752 / 2
BTTB 2311) YC 1-003, SZD, grün
(BTTB 2313)
E 499, SJ, rotorange
(BTTB)
start_e_lok_blau start_e_lok_gn
2achsige E-Lok
CC 7200, SNCF,
blau mit silberner Zierleiste
(BTTB, aus Start-Set) 2achsige E-Lok
CC 7200, SNCF,
blau ohne Zierleiste
(BTTB, aus Start-Set)
2achsige E-Lok
CC 7200, SNCF,
grün
(BTTB, aus Start-Set)
2achsige E-Lok
CC 7200, SNCF,
hellgrau / gelb als NS-Lok
(BTTB, aus Start-Set)
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