Sub­ur­ban vot­ers’ swing toward Democ­rats in the age of Don­ald Trump was off­set by fierce turnout among Trump’s base in some states on Elec­tion Day.

But not in Col­orado — where metro Denver’s sub­ur­ban coun­ties helped pow­er for­mer Vice Pres­i­dent Joe Biden to a statewide vic­to­ry that more than dou­bled Hillary Clinton’s 5‑per­cent­age-point mar­gin over now-Pres­i­dent Trump in 2016.

Biden led Trump statewide 55% to 42% on Fri­day, a 13-point mar­gin, though out­stand­ing bal­lots could change it slight­ly. In Ara­pa­hoe, Adams, Broom­field, Jef­fer­son and Dou­glas coun­ties, an aver­age mar­gin for Clin­ton of 5 per­cent­age points four years ago — on par with the statewide mar­gin — grew to an eye-pop­ping 15.6 per­cent­age points for Biden that out­paced the rest of Col­orado, accord­ing to a Den­ver Post analy­sis of elec­tion results.

Take out Dou­glas, a more right-lean­ing coun­ty that sup­port­ed Trump by more than 6 per­cent­age points, and the oth­er four coun­ties broke for Biden by near­ly 21 points, led by Broom­field at 27 points.

Some of that shift is due to this year’s lack of high-pro­file third-par­ty can­di­dates, who ate into Clinton’s mar­gin in 2016. The for­mer sec­re­tary of state also was a more polar­iz­ing Demo­c­ra­t­ic nom­i­nee than Biden would end up being.

But the left­ward march of Denver’s sub­urbs, while pre­dat­ing Trump, has only accel­er­at­ed in the last four years. The sub­ur­ban coun­ties are grow­ing fast, they’re diver­si­fy­ing, and they’re full of the kind of white-col­lar work­ers who have turned sharply against the president.

The 2018 midterm elec­tion, in which unaf­fil­i­at­ed vot­ers deliv­ered a blowout for Col­orado Democ­rats, had prompt­ed a warn­ing by local Repub­li­can poll­ster David Fla­her­ty: More pain was com­ing for the state GOP in 2020, when Trump would actu­al­ly be on the ballot.

What he couldn’t have pre­dict­ed then was a pan­dem­ic in an elec­tion year that deep­ened divides even more.

“In Col­orado, (the Trump fac­tor) is not a win­ner — we’re not a Mid­west­ern state,” where blue-col­lar vot­ers pro­vide a counter-cur­rent for the pres­i­dent, said Fla­her­ty, the founder of Louisville-based Mag­el­lan Strate­gies, on Thurs­day. “There’s sim­ply very lit­tle Repub­li­cans could have done this cycle because of the sheer math of the turnout.”

Indeed, a new poll of 900 vot­ers who cast bal­lots in Colorado’s elec­tion shows sev­er­al dynam­ics drove sup­port for Biden, includ­ing some that are key to the sub­urbs. Biden led Trump by 25 per­cent­age points among unaf­fil­i­at­ed vot­ers, by 23 points among vot­ers younger than 44, by 51 points among Lati­no vot­ers and by 24 points among white col­lege-edu­cat­ed voters.

The poll includ­ed a sam­ple rep­re­sen­ta­tive of Colorado’s vot­er turnout and was con­duct­ed Oct. 31 to Nov. 4 by Demo­c­ra­t­ic polling firm Glob­al Strat­e­gy Group for Pro­gress­Now Col­orado, a lib­er­al advo­ca­cy group, with a mar­gin of error of plus or minus 3.5 per­cent­age points.

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Republicans lose local offices

Colorado’s rejec­tion of Trump had big down-bal­lot con­se­quences. U.S. Sen. Cory Gard­ner lost Tues­day to Demo­c­ra­t­ic for­mer Gov. John Hick­en­loop­er, trail­ing by 8.8 per­cent­age points in the lat­est returns.

In Ara­pa­hoe and Jef­fer­son coun­ties, both for­mer swing coun­ties, a hand­ful of Repub­li­can state leg­is­la­tors man­aged to sur­vive close races — but the party’s loss of local elect­ed offices continued.

“When I came to the com­mis­sion in 2015, there was one elect­ed Demo­c­rat in the coun­ty gov­ern­ment,” recalled Jef­fer­son Coun­ty Com­mis­sion­er Lib­by Szabo. “When I leave in Jan­u­ary 2021, there will be one elect­ed Repub­li­can, and that will be the sheriff.”

Szabo lost her bid for reelec­tion on Tues­day to Demo­c­rat Tra­cy Kraft-Tharp, a term-lim­it­ed state rep­re­sen­ta­tive, by 8 per­cent­age points. She takes solace in the fact that she out­per­formed Trump, who lost to Biden in Jef­f­co by near­ly 19 per­cent­age points. But now all three coun­ty com­mis­sion­ers will be Democrats.

In Ara­pa­hoe Coun­ty, vot­ers flipped the coun­ty com­mis­sion from a 3–2 Repub­li­can major­i­ty to a 3–2 Demo­c­ra­t­ic edge — which would grow to 4–1 in the event of a loss by anoth­er Repub­li­can incum­bent who’s on the ropes. But that com­mis­sion­er led his Demo­c­ra­t­ic chal­lenger by 162 votes as of Fri­day afternoon.

In the 18th Judi­cial Dis­trict attorney’s race, which includes Ara­pa­hoe and Dou­glas coun­ties, anoth­er par­ti­san flip had looked pos­si­ble for a Repub­li­can-held office. But after Demo­c­ra­t­ic can­di­date Amy Pad­den ini­tial­ly led by a slim mar­gin, she trailed Repub­li­can John Kell­ner by 1,440 votes Fri­day. A win­ner had not been declared.

The Repub­li­can brand has suf­fered under Trump, unaf­fil­i­at­ed vot­er Tom Skar­bows­ki sug­gest­ed, but he puts the blame on the gen­er­al direc­tion of the par­ty in recent years. He lives in a sub­di­vi­sion in unin­cor­po­rat­ed Ara­pa­hoe Coun­ty and has vot­ed for can­di­dates from both par­ties, includ­ing Gard­ner in 2014 — though he lat­er protest­ed out­side Gardner’s office.

“(Trump) set the tone and every­body else has fol­lowed,” said Skar­bows­ki, 67. “It’s the old say­ing, ‘The buck stops here.’ He’s tak­en over the whole GOP.”

Even if Trump ceas­es to dom­i­nate the par­ty, he said, “I think it would take sev­er­al cycles before they would get the con­fi­dence back again.”

Other dynamics boosted Biden

The Post’s analy­sis found that Biden’s out­per­for­mance of Clinton’s 2016 mar­gin by 8 per­cent­age points was dri­ven by shifts toward the Demo­c­ra­t­ic pres­i­den­tial can­di­date in 50 of the state’s 64 coun­ties. But the Den­ver area’s sub­ur­ban coun­ties stand out, since four of them ranked among the state’s top six for raw num­bers of bal­lots this week.

The largest gain was in tiny San Juan Coun­ty, where Biden improved on Clinton’s mar­gin by 15 per­cent­age points.

Besides the sub­ur­ban coun­ties, Biden stocked up on votes in oth­er types of counties:

• • Large lib­er­al pow­er­hous­es, includ­ing Den­ver, where the Demo­c­ra­t­ic pres­i­den­tial mar­gin increased by about 10 per­cent­age points, and Boul­der, where it increased by about 11.
  • Tourism-heavy moun­tain coun­ties, includ­ing Sum­mit (12.1‑point gain), Gun­ni­son (11.5‑point gain) and San Miguel (10.7‑point gain).
  • Reli­ably red coun­ties won by Trump, but by nar­row­er mar­gins this time. The Demo­c­ra­t­ic deficit shrank by 11.7 per­cent­age points in El Paso, by 10.9 in Dou­glas, by 8.9 in Mesa and by 4.2 in Weld.
  • Three coun­ties that swung from Trump in 2016 to the Demo­c­rat this time — Chaf­fee (11.3 points), Garfield (9.2) and Pueblo (2.3). In Lati­no- and blue-col­lar-heavy Pueblo Coun­ty, Trump won by 0.5 per­cent­age points in 2016, but Biden led Fri­day by 1.8 points.

A permanent realignment?

In releas­ing the Glob­al Strat­e­gy Group’s new poll, called The Rocky Moun­taineer, the poll­sters char­ac­ter­ized the sub­ur­ban coun­ties’ sig­nif­i­cant Demo­c­ra­t­ic shifts as like­ly enduring.

“These white-col­lar sub­urbs are no longer swing areas as they actu­al­ly went about as strong­ly for Biden as El Paso and Dou­glas coun­ties did for (Repub­li­can nom­i­nee Mitt) Rom­ney in 2012,” wrote Andrew Bau­mann and Stephen Riggs.

Ara­pa­hoe Coun­ty Demo­c­ra­t­ic Par­ty Chair Kristin Mal­lo­ry hopes that’s true.

She gives Trump cred­it for mobi­liz­ing Democ­rats and unaf­fil­i­at­ed vot­ers in oppo­si­tion to him, but she says the area’s demo­graph­ic changes and growth have changed the polit­i­cal make­up even more. She said the local par­ty also has devel­oped a more coor­di­nat­ed approach to campaigning.

“For all intents and pur­pos­es, Ara­pa­hoe Coun­ty is pret­ty dang blue,” Mal­lo­ry said.

Szabo, the defeat­ed Jef­f­co com­mis­sion­er, also isn’t con­vinced Trump is the only fac­tor in the grow­ing Demo­c­ra­t­ic mar­gins on her side of the metro area.

But Fla­her­ty pre­dicts that when Trump is out of the nation­al pic­ture — whether by los­ing to Biden now or after a sec­ond term — Repub­li­cans’ prospects may improve in Col­orado, includ­ing in the suburbs.

With­out Trump’s pres­ence, com­ing state leg­isla­tive ses­sions dom­i­nat­ed by Democ­rats and a redis­trict­ing process set to play out next year could alter some of Colorado’s polit­i­cal dynam­ics, Fla­her­ty said.

“All those things do point to a brighter day for Repub­li­cans to pick them­selves up and dust them­selves off and make a case for why their solu­tions are per­haps bet­ter for Col­oradans than 100% Demo­c­ra­t­ic man­age­ment,” he said. “They won’t have to cringe from a tweet or a state­ment from Don­ald Trump.”