Joe Biden needs for the presidency:

a win in Pennsylvania

or: two wins in the four states of Ari­zona, North Car­oli­na, Neva­da and Georgia.

Novem­ber 6th

Penn­syl­va­nia seemed to fall to Biden on Fri­day morn­ing, even if Trump was still lead­ing there with around 18,200 votes as of 10:00 a.m. Ger­man time. Because of the more than 160,000 postal votes not yet count­ed accord­ing to CNN, the clear major­i­ty seems to have vot­ed for Biden. Penn­syl­va­nia is expect­ed to get enough votes by Fri­day to declare a winner.

Geor­gia is the big pos­i­tive sur­prise from the Biden camp per­spec­tive. As of 10.30 a.m. Ger­man time, the Demo­c­rat over­took Trump with more than 900 votes. Of the sev­er­al thou­sand postal votes still to be count­ed, most will prob­a­bly be count­ed for Biden. The postal votes of sol­diers deployed abroad are an unknown quan­ti­ty. These should be received by Fri­day evening and could pos­si­bly tip the scales.

Ari­zona had already been assigned to Biden by the Asso­ci­at­ed Press and Fox News before it ran unex­pect­ed­ly again. Observers in the US media assume that Biden’s lead of 42,000 votes can no longer be over­tak­en by Trump. How­ev­er, accord­ing to the “New York Times” in Ari­zona tra­di­tion­al­ly many reg­is­tered Repub­li­cans vote by postal vote, which is why the pro­por­tion of Trump vot­ers among the postal votes not yet count­ed could be high­er than in oth­er states.

Neva­da was con­sid­ered a safe state for Biden, which is why a lead­er­ship of 11,400 votes seems sur­pris­ing­ly tight. How­ev­er, when the postal votes were count­ed on Thurs­day, there was no strong trend for Trump, so that he could catch up even fur­ther. The dense­ly pop­u­lat­ed, Demo­c­ra­t­ic dis­trict of Clark Coun­ty, where Las Vegas is also locat­ed, wants to deliv­er new count­ing results on Fri­day evening Ger­man time.

North Car­oli­na is the only rea­son­ably safe state for Trump that has not yet been assigned to a can­di­date. Observers assume that Trump will bring his lead of 77,000 votes over the target.

The fact that the race for the pres­i­den­cy has turned so in favor of Biden is gen­er­al­ly accept­ed as an expla­na­tion for the wild accu­sa­tions of Trump, who speaks of ille­gal votes when it comes to the postal votes. The incum­bent, who makes no secret of being a bad los­er, appar­ent­ly sees his skins drift away.

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