As if not enough was at stake in the US presidential election, the Supreme Court is now joining in: a power struggle at the highest level that will shape fundamental positions in US politics for decades. Questions and answers about the coming weeks.
What happened?
The lawyer and liberal icon Ruth Bader Ginsburg died last week. She was one of the nine chief Supreme Court justices to be appointed for life in the United States. Republicans and Democrats argue over when the vacant post will be filled again. This is important in the context of the presidential election on November 3rd, as the Supreme Court is much more politicized than the German Federal Constitutional Court, for example. Most judges can be assigned to one of the two political camps, are considered conservative or liberal, and often make their decisions accordingly.
What is happening now
If the Republicans want to install another conservative judge, it has to be done quickly. US President Donald Trump has already announced that he will propose a woman at the end of the week. The Senate must approve the successor candidates by majority. The Congress Chamber is dominated by the Republicans. Normally, the senators would publicly question a candidate beforehand, but this is not absolutely necessary. Nor does it currently look like enough Republican senators will break away to break the conservative Senate majority. If Trump manages to fill Ginsburg’s place, it would be his third line-up on the Supreme Court in four years. In just one term of office, he would have brought about a real overthrow in the conservative direction.
Ginsburg was considered a fighter for human and civil rights.
The simple answer: in the United States for everyone because the Supreme Court is extremely powerful. The more detailed one: There are several key social and legal conflicts that are resolved through the court. These include the popular health insurance alias Obamacare and thus also its future; Affirmative action, i.e. whether people may be given certain advantages based on their ethnic background, for example when awarding jobs or university places; the fight over whether or not abortions should be allowed. There is a ruling from 1973 that allows abortion, which the majority of conservatives want to overturn. For them it is also a red political line that they would never cross. Gun law decisions are also a major point of contention.
What does this have to do with the presidential election?
Trump could thus possibly secure important votes for the presidential election. Both among the population and among the judges. The favorite for the nomination is Amy Barrett from Chicago, according to the US media. Barrett is considered a clear anti-abortionist. If conservatives see a chance for the Supreme Court to protect anti-abortion legislation indefinitely, it could mobilize more voters (but also supporters). Another candidate is Barbara Lagoa, a daughter of Cubans in exile from Florida. Without the state with a growing Latino electorate, Trump is extremely unlikely to be re-elected. He and Joe Biden are head to head there. If Lagoa were confirmed as chief judge, it could draw decisive Latino votes to Trump’s side. Trump has also fared poorly among women. Another conservative judge could help him after the election. If the election results are controversial — a scenario that Trump has been preparing for months, for example by questioning the legitimacy of postal votes — the Supreme Court could decide who will be allowed to sit in the White House for the next four years.
Why is the nomination so controversial?
Mitch McConnell, the Republican majority leader in the Senate, has already announced that he will hold a vote before the election. The opposition Democrats accuse the Republicans of double standards. In 2016 the signs were reversed: A Conservative judge died in February, but McConnell blocked a vote on Barack Obama’s candidate by pointing out that the new president had to be determined. Obama’s recruitment proposal therefore failed — and shortly after he replaced Obama as president in early 2017, Trump nominated a conservative judge in Neil Gorsuch, who was confirmed by the Senate. The Democrat Elizabeth Warren speaks in front of a poster in honor of Ginsburg that calls for a candidate to be put to the vote only after the election.