It’s November 4th, 2020. The US presidential election is over. Postal votes are still being counted, but the important swing states have been decided. Democrat Joe Biden wins by a narrow margin, but with a majority. But Donald Trump just doesn’t work. Don’t congratulate the winner or announce a smooth transition in the White House. Rather, the president tweets all day long election fraud, manipulated ballot papers and how he will challenge all of this in court. A nightmare scenario. But one that is no longer the same as an inconceivable House of Cards script, but rather a script that Trump and his team are working on to pull it out of the drawer just in case and actually implement it. The Atlantic reported about it this week. And the President himself continues to reinforce fears of this kind. When Trump was asked at a press conference on Wednesday whether he could guarantee a peaceful transfer of power in the event of “victory, defeat or tie”, he said, “Well, we’ll see what happens.”

“Pillars of US democracy in danger,” headlined cnn.com the day after, John Cassidy wrote in The New Yorker “Trump is attacking American democracy at its core,” and Paul Waldmann said in the Washington Post that the war was on Democracy has only just begun with the Republicans. The party, which otherwise largely follows Trump quite unconditionally, did not want to leave this demise scenario of American democracy standing. On Thursday, several Republicans said the peaceful transfer of power was a constitutional foundation that was not vulnerable. Among them Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell: He tweeted, “The November 3 winner will be inducted into office on January 20. It will be an orderly transition, as it has been every four years since 1792 is. “I consent to external content being displayed to me. This allows personal data to be transmitted to third-party platforms. Read more about our privacy policy.

McConnell is not suspected of being one of Trump’s critics in the party. He doesn’t even mention the name of the president in his tweet, because McConnell and Trump have a common goal: to succeed Ruth Bader Ginsburg at the Supreme Court before a possible election defeat. Even if parts of the Republicans speak subtly against Trump’s unclear statements regarding the time after the election: The Supreme Court and its cast will play a decisive role after a possibly close election. Regardless of whether there are actually legitimate reasons to contest the election or it will be Trump’s last attempt to stay in power. “After an unclear election result, the decision is transferred to the Supreme Court as the casting vote,” says Constanze Stelzenmüller, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. That is also why Trump is doing everything in his power to determine who will succeed Ginsburg. It would be his third occupation and would clearly shift the value relationships to the right. And this has far-reaching consequences, says Stelzenmüller: “With a clear majority of 6: 3 in the court, one of the central institutions of the American separation of powers could be in the hands of the conservatives for a generation.”

The calculation of Trump’s Supreme Court Poker: With a comfortable majority in the court, a possible legal decision on the presidential election would also be in his favor. The worried titles of the US commentators are not unfounded. In recent years, the role of the Supreme Court has been repeatedly assigned to make decisions on fundamental political and social issues on which the parties could not find a compromise in their mutual blockade. And in the 2000 presidential election, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of George W. Bush when it stopped the hand count of controversial ballots in Florida. But even if the Republicans manage to fill the vacant position at the Supreme Court in Trump’s first term, this will not guarantee the president any judgments in his favor. Democratic and Republican presidents have always put judges in office who are politically close to them in their legal decisions. Nevertheless, the judges are independent. Trump also had to find out about this during his term in office.

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