The Truth About Coronavirus And How It Will Spread Around The World In 2020
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What the data say about Corona and what doesn’t
With the new coronavirus, new numbers hit us every day – more infected people, new deaths, plus calculations on doubling rates and death rates. We explain what that means, what is often done wrong and where scientists still argue.
What do we know about the spread of the virus?
The best strategy for a virus to survive is to spread itself as quickly as possible. It depends on the host cells to multiply. Before the immune system can take up the fight and win it, the virus must have jumped over to the next person. How often this happens is indicated by the base reproduction number (R0). A value between 2 and 3, as is also assumed for SARS-CoV-2, means that one person infects at least two others, these people in turn at least two and so on.
The basic reproduction number looks like it is set in stone. But it is not. Different institutes and authorities name different values or ranges. The base reproduction number is a constant rate of reproduction. In the case of an ongoing epidemic or pandemic, there is no constant rising line, but a curve. The number of infected people initially develops rather slowly with a slight increase, at the end it literally explodes. It is an exponential growth.
The effective number of reproductions varies depending on the measures taken and how much contact there is between people. This ultimately results in the exact course of the curve. In order to curb the spread of the coronavirus, the number of reproductions must be pushed below the value of 1.
There is often a dispute about whether the R value is 0.9 or 1.0. Rather, the fact is that there is a possible area. This confidence interval indicates, for example, that the value is within a range with a 95 percent certainty. At the end of April this range was between 0.8 and 1.1. The R-value is only a snapshot depending on the tests carried out: If the sum of the tests increases, the number of cases very likely increases too. Especially at the beginning of the epidemic, the expansion of the tests could have a significant impact on the R-value.
Fluctuations of 0.1 in the R value are more likely to be subject to estimation errors than actual trends.
An R-value below 1 is still only an average value. Even then, there can be local outbreaks in some places if no one is infected anywhere else at the same time. The reported cases are often shown as a diagram and show just such a curve. The reported cases are simply added up – after a certain time this becomes overdramatized. Because if you only add up the reported cases, you are neglecting all healthy patients. As more people recover than are newly infected, the total number of active, known cases decreases.
Everyone can view the latest live statistics and case numbers on various news sites. They provide information on morbidity, i.e. the frequency of an illness in the population. One actually speaks of the prevalence. This would say how many people in Germany are sick with Covid-19 at a certain point in time.
Usually, the reported cases are related to a defined population (amount of people), for example the entire population or per 100,000 inhabitants. For this information, however, every infection would have to be known – we will explain why this is not the case later. What is meant are the reported, positive laboratory results – not the actual case numbers (this uncertainty persists). Numerical values for an entire country are of little or no practical use. In Italy, half of the Covid-19 cases were concentrated in northern Italy. This information is lost in country numbers. A better classification is the frequency of 100,000 people per federal state. The number of cases per available hospital and intensive care beds could be more effective for political decisions.
It would also be helpful to state the number of tests carried out and to create a reference value. In Germany, only around six to nine percent of suspected SARS-CoV-2 cases are positive. The doubling rate depends largely on how many tests the laboratories carry out. If there are fewer tests than infections, the doubling rate can never tell you how the disease will spread. If the test capacities are then doubled and, accordingly, more cases are diagnosed, this has nothing to do with the speed of propagation.
The delay in reporting also influences the doubling rates. If little is reported on the weekend, the curve is flatter on Monday. Again, the cause is not the spread. In the news there is also the daily reports about the deceased, the mortality or death rate or mortality. With Covid-19 one means a case- or disease-specific mortality. The term mortality represents the deaths in relation to the entire population (or a defined sub-group thereof, e.g. all residents of North Rhine-Westphalia, or more sensibly: per 1000 inhabitants).
A distinction must be made between this and lethality. This term represents the deaths in relation to the number of all sick people. The mortality rate is often given across all age groups. This is useful for comparison with other diseases and infections, but overdramatizes the risk for young people with Covid-19 and underestimates it for older people. With more precise patient data, you can also calculate individual age-specific death rates, which show, for example, that older patients in particular die with Covid-19. This makes sense because the likelihood of dying from Covid-19 is more than 70 times higher for people over 80 than for 20 to 30 year olds, according to Chinese data. Usually the death rate is given for a period of one year. During an ongoing epidemic or pandemic, they are snapshots – which are constantly changing. More on that later.
And deaths are often calculated on the same day. The RKI reports 91,714 laboratory-confirmed cases and 1,342 deaths on April 5. This would result in a same-day mortality rate of 1342 / 91.714 = 1.5 percent.
Item Section:
According to previous data, patients with severe courses spend an average of ten days in hospital before they die. This period lies between the death and its official report. For a comparison with April 5th, the number of cases from March 26th must be used. There are 36,508 laboratory-confirmed cases. That would be quite a high value for lethality. It is well above that of the seasonal flu (2017/2018: 0.4 percent) and the estimates that experts gave at the beginning of the pandemic. These were between 0.3 and 0.7 percent. It is actually not a question of lethality, at best a preliminary calculation. One speaks of the case fatality rate (CFR), because the denominator does not contain the actual number of infected people, but the number of reported cases. The number of people actually infected is higher. This means that the death rate will also be lower than the proportion of people who died in a case.
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BR 01, DRG
(BTTB 2120)
BR 23 1003, DR
(Zeuke 159 / 77,
545 / 77) BR 23 1111, DR
(BTTB 2110)
BR 23, DR
(BTTB, aus "Touristen Express"-Set))
br35_1111
BR 35 1111-0, DR
(BTTB 2110)
br56
BR 56 2719, DR
(BTTB 2230) G 8.2, Nr. 2721, KPEV
(BTTB 2231)
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BR 81 013, DR
(Zeuke 159 / 51,
545 / 51) BR 81 001, DR
(BTTB 2210)
BR 81 004, DRG
(BTTB 2210)
BR 81 004, DB
(BTTB 2211)
BR 81, DR
vereinfachte Steuerung
(Zeuke 159 / 78)
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BR 86 1615-5, DR
(BTTB 2240) BR 86 460, DRG
(BTTB 2242) BR 86 173, DB
(BTTB 2241) Reihe 455, CSD
(BTTB 2244)
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BR 92 6582, DR
(Zeuke 545 / 494) BR 92 6582, DR
(BTTB 2220) BR 92 als Privatbahn (BTTB
(BTTB, aus Start-Set) BR 92 als Nord-Belge (BTTB, aus Start-Set)
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2achsige Tenderlok, schwarz
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(BTTB, aus Start-Set)
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V 36 071, DR, grau
(Zeuke 545 / 23,
BTTB 2631) V 36 071, DR, grün
(Zeuke 545 / 22)
V 36 021, DR, grün
(BTTB 2630)
BR 103 021-2, DR, grün
(BTTB 2630)
br103gelb.jpg (62757 Byte) v36_265db_rt.jpg (56714 Byte)
BR 103 033-7, DR, gelb
(BTTB 2631) V 36 255, DB, rot
(BTTB 2632) V 36, DB, schwarz
(BTTB) Y 50, SNCF, grün
(BTTB 2634)
zeuke_v75 zeuke_t435
V 75 001, 1. Ausführung
DR, rot
(Zeuke 545 / 53) T 435 001,
1. Ausführung
CSD, blau,
weißes Geländer
(Zeuke 545 / 52)
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BR 107 001-0, DR, rot
(BTTB 2620)
T 435 001, CSD, blau
schwarzes Geländer
(BTTB 2621) T 435 040, CSD, blau
weißes Geländer
(BTTB 2621)
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YM 32-205 , SZD, grün
(BTTB 2622) YM 32-125; SZD, grün
(BTTB 2622)
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BR 110 034-7, DR, rot
(BTTB 2540) BR 110 156-7, DR, gelb
(BTTB 2545) BR 211 167-2, DB, blau
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(BTTB 2547)
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V180 160, DR
rot / elfenbein
(Zeuke 545 / 750) V 180 146, DR
rot / elfenbein
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rot / creme
(BTTB 2522) BR 118 114-8, DR
rot / creme
(BTTB 2522)
BR 119 120-4, DR
(BTTB 2521)
br130dr
BR 130 007-8, DR
(BTTB 2640) T 679, CSD
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V 200 139, DB
rot / grau
(Zeuke 159 / 76,
545 / 26)
BR 221 139-9, DB
rot / silbergrau
(BTTB 2510)
BR 221 137-5, DB
blau / beige
(BTTB 2511)
BR 221, DB
rot / beige
(BTTB 2512)
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V 200 "CCCP"
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(Zeuke ) V 200 "Silver Lines"
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(Zeuke ) V 200
braun
(Zeuke, aus Start-Set) V 200, SJ
braun
(BTTB, aus Start-Set)
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T 334, CSD, rot
(Zeuke 545 / 502) T 334 0508, CSD, blau
(Zeuke 545 / 501) T 334, CSD, grün / weiß
(BTTB 2610) MH, DSB, grün
(Zeuke 545 / 503)
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T 334, 2achsig
blau / creme
(Zeuke (, aus Start-Set) T 334, 2achsig
grün / elfenbein
(Zeuke
(BTTB, aus Start-Set)
noab_mav_neu noab_dsb_bttb noab_sncb
M 61 001, MAV, weinrot
(Zeuke 545 / 9,
BTTB 2532) M 61 019, MAV, rot
(BTTB 2532)
My 1125, DSB, weinrot
(Zeuke 545 / 8,
BTTB 2531) R 202 003, SNCB, grün
(BTTB 2533)
start_taigatrommel
2achsige Diesellok
ähnlich DR-BR 120, rot
(BTTB, aus Start-Set) 2achsige Diesellok
ähnlich DR-BR 120, grün
(BTTB, aus Start-Set)
vt2_09_dach_beige
VT 2.09.070
Dach beige
(Zeuke)
Beiwagen VB 02,
Dach beige
(Zeuke)
VT 2.09.070 + VB,
Dach grau
(Zeuke 545 / 1,
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Dach grau
(Zeuke ,
BTTB 2812)
br171_vb vb171
BR 171 018-5
Dach grau
(BTTB 2810) Beiwagen BR 171 824-6,
Dach grau
(BTTB 2812)
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SVT "Courier", 2teilig
rot / weiß
(Zeuke) SVT "Courier", 2teilig
weiß / rot
(Zeuke) SVT "Courier", 2teilig
weiß / blau
(Zeuke 545 / 34)
Die Diesel-Schnelltriebwagen Elektro-Triebzug Fahrtrafo
SVT "Intourex", 3teilig
weiß / blau
(Zeuke 545 / 37)
ET "Transitus", 3teilig, weiß / blau
(Zeuke 545 / 35) ET "Transitus", 3teilig, grün / gelb
(Zeuke 545 / 35)
Mittelwagen für "Courier", Transitus", "Intourex";
rot / weiß
(Zeuke) Mittelwagen für "Courier", Transitus", "Intourex";
weiß / blau
(Zeuke) Mittelwagen für "Courier", Transitus", "Intourex"
weiß / rot
(Zeuke) Mittelwagen für "Courier", Transitus", "Intourex"; grün / gelb
(Zeuke)
e11_022dach_beige.jpg (55398 Byte) e11_022rt.jpg (64664 Byte)
E 11 022, DR
grün, Dach beige
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E 11 015, DR
grün, Dach grau
(Zeuke 545 / 754,
BTTB) E 11 022, DR
rot
(Zeuke / BTTB 2322)
BR 211 018-7, DR
rot
(BTTB 2322)
e42_018
E 42, DR,
grün, Dach beige
(Zeuke 545 / 755) E 42 018, DR
grün, Dach grau
(Zeuke 545 / 755,
BTTB 2321) BR 242 020-6, DR
grün, Dach grau
(BTTB 2321) BR 242 018-2, DR
grün, Dach grau
(BTTB 2321)
E 70 01, DR, braun
(Zeuke / Herr 545 / 25, 545 / 2 / 2)
E 70 01, DR, grün
beschriftet
(Zeuke / Herr 545 / 24) E 70, DR, grün,
unbeschriftet
(Zeuke / Herr) E 70 01, DR, grau
(Zeuke / Herr)
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E 94 065, DR, grün
(Zeuke 545 / 751) BR 254 065-6, DR, grün
(BTTB 2410) BR 194 178-0, DB, blau
(BTTB 2411) Reihe 1020 020, ÖBB, rot
(BTTB 2412)
br250
BR 250 112-0, DR, bordeauxrot
(BTTB 2330) BR 250 245-8, DR, hellrot
(BTTB 2331)
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E 499 035, CSD
blau / elfenbein
(Zeuke 545 / 20,
Zeuke 545 / 752 / 1,
BTTB 2312) E 499 035, CSD
grün / elfenbein
(Zeuke 545 / 21,
Zeuke 545 / 752 / 2
BTTB 2311) YC 1-003, SZD, grün
(BTTB 2313)
E 499, SJ, rotorange
(BTTB)
start_e_lok_blau start_e_lok_gn
2achsige E-Lok
CC 7200, SNCF,
blau mit silberner Zierleiste
(BTTB, aus Start-Set) 2achsige E-Lok
CC 7200, SNCF,
blau ohne Zierleiste
(BTTB, aus Start-Set)
2achsige E-Lok
CC 7200, SNCF,
grün
(BTTB, aus Start-Set)
2achsige E-Lok
CC 7200, SNCF,
hellgrau / gelb als NS-Lok
(BTTB, aus Start-Set)
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