When will the election result come? – The “blue wave” is supposed to wash away Trump

Queen 2020

Because of the corona pandemic, more Americans than ever before cast their votes by letter. That could mean that there is still no decision on election night, but Trump looks like the winner. Then the “blue wave” could roll in. The moment of truth is approaching for Donald Trump. Will he make it again? Contrary to all polls, in all likelihood of winning the election for president? There are many indications that this time he will fail. His challenger Joe Biden is clearly ahead in the polls and he himself has done little in the past few weeks to change that. But it’s Trump. The Teflon man on whom everything seems to pear off. Not even his erratic behavior in the Corona crisis has permanently pushed his popularity values ​​below 40 percent. And if we learned one thing in 2016, it is that polls can be wrong. *Data protection So now election day is finally here. But it may well be that the Democrats, the Americans, and the pretty gazing world won’t be certain of who won the race tonight. A decision could only be made in the coming days – even if Biden should clearly win the race in the end. This is due to the postal vote, which is particularly popular this election year due to the corona pandemic, and the “blue wave” that is to be expected. In the nine contested states of North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin alone, a good 20 million postal ballot papers were requested, which corresponds to almost a third of all registered voters. In the Democratic primary elections, according to statisticians from the Pew Research Center, half of the votes were cast by postal vote – it was 26.6 million out of a total of 53 million. Delays of days possible The postal votes for the presidential election are often only counted after the election, which can delay the announcement of the final result for days. In Michigan, for example, they do not expect to be able to announce the final result until Friday, November 6th, as the “New York Times” reported. Even in Pennsylvania, which may have a deciding vote, the counting of the postal votes will not begin until this Tuesday. In addition, postal votes may be counted that arrive by Friday, provided they have been sent in time. Since it is assumed that predominantly Democrat voters use postal voting, it could be that on election night the Republicans and Trump look like the winners, but then in the following days the needle turns more and more in the direction of the Democrats – so then when all the postal votes of the Biden supporters are counted. Since the party color of the Democrats is blue, one speaks of a “blue wave”. There was already talk of the Blue Wave in 2018, when all seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate were up for election in nationwide elections (the “Midterm Elections”). The Democrats won 41 parliamentary seats but lost 2 in the Senate. Nevertheless, this was a great success for the opposition party because they won the majority in the House of Representatives from the Republicans and were therefore able to conduct opposition politics more efficiently. And, of course, success was seen as step one in the mission to retake the White House. Exactly the scenario described emerged. On election night itself, it did not look like a great success for the Democrats. Rather, the opposite is true: the House of Representatives has not yet seen major gains and the Democrats threatened to lose four instead of two seats in the Senate. But then the postal votes were gradually counted and the blue bars of the Democrats grew higher and higher in the diagrams. A blue wave that gradually built up. According to Pew, the proportion of postal voters in 37 states in this election was a total of 27.4 percent.

This subsequent blue wave is likely to be the reason why President Trump railed against the postal vote in the past few months. He claimed that it was inviting election fraud, saying that Republican votes were simply being thrown away. As usual, he did not provide any evidence. In the US media it is always said that the postal vote is safe and even if there may be problems here and there, the election result will not be falsified. more on the subject “A disaster for Joe” It’s 2016 again for Trump 2020 US presidential election what if Trump refuses to leave? Preservation of power by force? Trump is not a coup, but an opportunist Trump wants the result of election night to apply – “as before,” as he says. Although it was the case in previous elections that the final result was sometimes only counted after days, the media declared a winner beforehand. If a clear result appears, there is nothing wrong with it. But if it gets tight, you can’t simply declare the winner who has a small lead. That an election is only decided when all the votes have been counted is perhaps the most important basic democratic principle. Trump probably expects to be ahead in the contested states on election night. If the race were quasi stopped on election evening, his chances of victory would be greater. In this way Trump tries to sow doubts about the legitimacy of the election and to sell a possible defeat as a fraud. After all, the choice would not be his own fault. However, it is not to be expected that he will really get away with it and become a kind of dictator who simply suppresses the counting of all votes. That’s a red line drawn by his Republican Party, as its powerful Senate leader Mitch McConnell has made clear. The military is certainly not on the side of Trump on this point. In short, it seems inconceivable that Trump could get away with it. That people talk about it is telling enough, of course. If there is still no decision in the coming election night, the president will hardly hold still. And maybe make a real riot for the last time.

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