The next German Chancellor – Scholz makes history, Laschet misses carpets

next-german-chanclelor
Bundesfinanzminister Olaf Scholz, Kanzlerkandidat der SPD, winkt bei einer Wahlkampfkundgebung im Bezirk Mitte. (Foto: picture alliance/dpa/dpa-Zentralbild)

It’s been 15 years since the SPD was last polled as the strongest political force in Germany. In October 2006. Younger Social Democrats – yes, there are – can no longer remember it, older ones indulge in memories and have to pinch themselves these days to be sure that they are not dreaming. The good old aunt SPD in first place in the favor of voters. Really now? Yes, really now. Hardly anyone had bet a chanterelle on it when, of all people, Olaf Scholz, whom the comrades did not want as party chairman, became candidate for chancellor. Boring, boring, there’s no better way, was blasphemed behind closed doors. Sometimes quite openly. The Scholz camp holds against it: The 63-year-old is serious, crisis-proof, authentic.

And apparently that’s what many voters want in the summer of 2021: a serious crisis manager whom they most likely trust to pull the cart after a year and a half of the corona pandemic, the floods and the Afghanistan debacle. Perhaps because it promises a continuation of the Merkel era. The SPD even flirts with it: “Olaf Scholz can be Chancellor”. Ironic? Yes but only a little bit.

Does the future belong to Olaf Scholz? Surveys see the SPD candidate well ahead of his competitors

Of course, the SPD and its candidate for chancellor benefit from the weakness of the competition. Annalena Baerbock and Armin Laschet – weighed and found to be too light. Sure, both can still gain by election day. But four weeks isn’t much time left when you’re behind. Scholz now has to keep his nerve and hope that neither the keywords Wirecard nor Warburg-Bank pop up again, then he could achieve what was barely conceivable until recently: a comeback of the SPD.

The triall on Sunday evening

The first Chancellor’s triumph on German-language television can be seen on Sunday, August 29th at 8:10 p.m. on ntv and RTL. The group will be moderated by Pinar Atalay and Peter Kloeppel. ntv.de shows the broadcast in a live stream. An insider from the Chancellery made an interesting observation. “The people from Laschet are already walking around measuring the rooms.” In principle, this is not an unusual and ultimately even necessary process in order to ensure a smooth transfer of power later on. But given the polls? In any case, Scholz emissaries have not yet been spotted.

The question of where you were when Forsa published the latest survey, which the SPD sees for the first time in 15 years before the Union, can probably be answered by most election campaigners without any problem. Laschet himself could certainly do that too. But the chairman of the CDU is currently preparing for other questions. He practices for the triell. The first meeting of the three candidates for chancellor (Sunday, 8:10 p.m., n-tv) may offer Laschet the last chance to stop the trend. The political scientist Albrecht von Lucke, not an enemy of hearty quotes, describes the initial situation as follows: “The presentation that we currently have, since the high-flyer Scholz, since the water corpse Laschet, paints a completely ludicrous picture.” In this respect, the starting position is advantageous for Laschet. He could only win if the people expected the breakdown uncle and then saw the serious politician. Objectively speaking, everything is possible for Laschet. Chancellery or eternal damnation, the CDU should have to vacate the power center. Then some would have been happy too early – and, above all, measured too early.

“Foreign policy disaster” Opposition in the Bundestag sharply criticizes Afghanistan policy

Looking back, it might have been better for Annalena Baerbock if she could have rolled up the field straight away. But at the end of an elaborate production, which culminated in the presentation of the 40-year-old as the Green Chancellor candidate, the brief hype surrounding Baerbock had already reached unimagined heights. And, as is well known, from these it falls particularly deep, especially with so many sloppy things and mistakes. But that’s a thing of the past, at least for the Greens. Others have been leading the polls for months, first Laschet, now Scholz. And since Baerbock has come to terms with the role of the huntress, she has also shown self-confidence again. That was not only seen in the RTL program “Am Tisch mit …”. The Union and SPD were impressively felt in the Bundestag on Wednesday. When Baerbock read the riot act to the government on the subject of Afghanistan, the members of the Groko faction foamed – always a good indicator that they had put their fingers in the right wound.

“You have now exceeded the total speaking time of your group by far,” warned Wolfgang Schäuble. There ss the Bundestag President Baerbock allowed it to go for so long, was possibly also a silent expression of approval – at least as far as the extent of the Afghanistan disaster is concerned.

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