After the first wave of 35,000 Covid-19 deaths subsided, Italy felt saved. The pandemic appeared to be over. You wanted to get back to normal life as soon as possible. But in view of the rapidly increasing number of victims, there is now a threat of a new lockdown. On October 21, 127 people died again from and with Covid-19 in Italy. So many people last died on May 23, then there were 119. But May was different. The first wave was about to subside, mortality fell, and the pandemic appeared to be over. Now it goes up again steeply. “How did we manage that, who screwed it up?” Asks Francesco, owner of “Er Pozzo der Gelato”, a well-known eatery in the Roman quarter of Monteverde. The fear of a new lockdown is written on his face. Francesco had to close his restaurant for almost three months, half of his workforce is still in “Cassa integrazione”, the short-time work fund, which continues to pay almost half of the salary. Francesco is not allowed to fire anyone, this is still prohibited in Italy under Covid-19.

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The massive lockdown in the spring was the last choice because Italy was completely taken by surprise by the virus. Nobody understood the warning signs, Italy was caught off guard. Well-known researchers such as the Milanese head of the Microbiology Laboratory, Maria Rita Gismondo, saw no danger in Italy at the time. Gismondo declared on February 23 that it was “sheer madness to declare an emergency here, it’s just a slightly more severe flu”. On February 25, the first two deaths from the new virus were officially reported. But Gismondo, like many other experts, remained true to their convictions, despite the rapidly increasing number of infections and soon deaths. The well-known professor repeatedly declared that the wave of infections had subsided. On March 21st, she said she had recognized a “genetic change” in the sense of a weakening. The numbers seemed to prove her right. The final peak was reached on March 27, when 969 people died. After that, the number of deaths fell steadily until it hit single digits from mid-July – after almost three months in lockdown.

The second wave is here

Now the Sars-CoV-2 virus is back with all its might. How could that happen? A look at the daily bulletins of the national health authority of Italy, the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS), gives a first, clear indication. At the height of the first wave, the mean age of someone who tested positive for Sars-CoV-2 was 71 years. On August 20, the ISS Bulletin writes, the “average age of diagnosed cases in the previous week dropped to 30 years”.

Disinfectant on a table in a school on the outskirts of Rome.

Attilio Fontana, President of the Lombardy region, which has once again been hit hard, claims to have identified the culprits: the young people. “The data analysis shows that most cases of infection occur in the age group from 20 to 29. The infections can obviously be explained with the leisure activities,” said Fontana. According to the Milan virology professor Fabrizio Pregliasco, the low age of those infected with corona in August also explains the initially very low number of patients with symptoms and the equally low case mortality at the beginning of the second wave. “Young people very rarely die from Covid-19, the mortality rate is 0.1 percent. Only from the age of 40 does it go up significantly,” the expert told ntv.de. The mean age of the positives in the RT-PCR test has increased steadily again since the summer. From 30 to now 53. And with it the mortality also increased.

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