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Wild speculation about what Trump’s coronavirus contagion will mean for the US election is just a lot of ado about the same facts. For some, Trump is a failure. For the others the strong man. At the end of April, Mitch McConnell, the Republican majority leader in the US Senate, mailed new physician guidelines for Senators. In a seven-page letter, all senators were told to keep two meters apart. You should minimize the number of visitors and employees, wear face mask and not meet in groups. These guidelines were carefully followed, writes the US magazine “The Hill” – until September 26th. Then US President Donald Trump announced the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett as Supreme Court Justice – in the rose garden of the White House. Most of the event guests stayed there without any distance or mouth and nose protection. One hugged. One of the two Republican senators, who have now tested positive, also warmly expressed other guests. Trump himself may have been directly or indirectly infected there.

Appearances in the election campaign Pence and Sons should represent Trump

The Republicans have a majority of four votes in the Senate. If more of them become infected, Amy Coney Barrett may not be confirmed ahead of the November 3rd election as planned. This is “the latest example of disciplined Republican senators whose plans are being undermined by an unpredictable president,” judges “The Hill”. Other US media speculate vigorously with “what if” scenarios. The republican plans include not only the prestigious judge position, which they want to fill with the conservative anti-abortion opponent Barrett, but also of course the election victory and the majority in the powerful Congress Chamber. So has Trump’s carelessness and current infection undermined his own goals and those of the Republicans?

Amy Coney Barrett would be the third Conservative Supreme Court judge Trump installs in his first term.

It would be quite adventurous to claim at this point. Because one number is clear: in the United States, there are only about 3 percent real swing voters. So the vast majority feel a bond with the Republicans or the Democrats and, if in doubt, stay at home rather than vote for the other party. The points of view are pretty stuck and most of them have already made up their minds. Polls tend to suggest that Trump’s behavior in the last TV debate made him look bad. However, moods can change quickly and surveys generally only assess voting behavior to a limited extent. The Democrats had to experience this first hand in 2016. Her candidate Joe Biden has currently led the national polls with an average of more than 7 percent for months, but nobody can predict what this will mean for the result in November. If there is at all after election night. For months, Trump has been complaining about the allegedly fraud-prone postal vote. If the worst comes to the worst, the Supreme Court could decide.

Economics, health care, Supreme Court, coronavirus and crime – these are top issues for registered voters, too, in that order, Pew Research noted. Senator Mitch McConnell announced over the weekend that Barrett’s hearing would take place on October 12th as scheduled. Infected Republican senators, the lack of which could endanger the necessary majority, should join in virtually if necessary. After recovery, Trump’s infection is likely to have been confirmation that the president has now experienced his failure in the corona policy firsthand, and they may even be gleeful. For others, his contagion means the opposite: Trump becomes approachable, for example when he explains in a video that he has “learned a lot”, praises the medical staff and invokes the unity of the Americans. If your president then steps back on the stage of the second TV duel punctually on October 15th against competitor Joe Biden because he was just allowed to get out of quarantine, his illness will also have been just another episode of his presidency. One with which he has proven that nothing can upset him: no impending bankruptcy, no bed stories, no impeachment proceedings or possible tax scandal. Not even the virus. The voters would have to do that.

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