How deadly is the coronavirus? This has long been debated. Spanish researchers are now calculating how the pandemic will affect their country’s life expectancy. The results are “worrying”. Spain is one of the countries that was hit hardest by the corona pandemic in spring. As the first EU country, the threshold of one million corona infected people was exceeded. In addition to Catalonia, there were countless Covid-19 diseases with many deaths in the capital Madrid. The effects can now also be seen in the country’s life expectancy. Scientists from the Spanish Center for Demographic Studies conclude that at the height of the disease wave in Madrid, life expectancy dropped by 15 years for two weeks. Year-round life expectancy in Madrid could fall by 2.8 years for men. In the whole of Spain, life expectancy could decrease by 11 months. The study was published in the science magazine “PLOS ONE!” released. Usually Spain is one of the countries with the highest life expectancy; at over 83 years of age it was last in second place behind Japan. This is another reason why Sergi Trias-Llimos from the Center for Demographic Studies speaks to the Internet newspaper “El Confidencial” of “very high and worrying figures”.

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As of July 19, 28,000 Covid-19 deaths had been recorded in Spain. The number is likely to be even higher because not all diseases may have been identified. In addition, mortality from other diseases could also have increased because people for fear of infection have foregone life-sustaining therapies or could not be treated in an overstretched healthcare system. For their study, the researchers used figures from the Spanish Daily Mortality Monitoring System (MoMo) as well as information from death certificates, population figures and demographic information from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. On this basis, the team estimated the weekly and annual life expectancy.

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The increase in deaths is particularly clear in calendar weeks 13 and 14 (March 23 to April 5). In Madrid, life expectancy fell by 11.2 years to 14.8 years during this period. In Catalonia the decline was between 8.4 and 9.4 years. The regions of Castile-La Mancha and Castile y León were also affected, while Galicia and Asturias in the north-west and Murcia in the south and the Canary Islands were largely spared. From the 21st calendar week (May 18 to 24), the weekly calculations of life expectancy had again reached roughly the level of 2019. Trias-Llimos points out that there has not been such a significant decrease in life expectancy in Spain since the civil war. The researchers also assume that life expectancy will probably drop even further in the next year, as there is currently “an excess mortality due to the second wave.” Excess mortality describes the increase in deaths in 2020 compared to the average for previous years .

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