It’s a long US election and it’s not over yet. The Democrats have to wonder where their misjudgments were. Trump calls himself the winner, but without a basis. Biden urges patience. What are the dishes doing? No, there is still no winner in the USA. Who should lead the United States out of the crisis of the century in the next four years? Unknown. The pendulum of power hardly moved in one direction that night, despite more than 100 million votes in advance, months of din and din. In the morning Trump declares himself the winner, although there is no basis for it – at least not yet.

“It’s all extremely confused” Trump wants to stop the count – is that possible?

The states of Florida, Texas, Ohio, and probably also North Carolina remain in Republican hands. The Democrats’ hopes for a “blue wave” have been dashed and a shortcut to victory is blocked early. Now everyone is looking at the “blue wall” destroyed by Donald Trump in 2016: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan in the northeast. You will decide this presidential election. Who can pick up the stones? Two of the three states are enough for victory – but the authorities there still have to count postal votes. In Pennsylvania, they warned in advance that this could take until Friday. We need a result on election night, US President Donald Trump had repeatedly demanded. The Democrats had also encouraged their voters to cast their votes in advance. Trump made sure that most Republicans would vote in person on election day. He has chosen the right tactic for his clientele, and they went to the polls at least as enthusiastically as they did four years ago.

And it’s 2016 again

It’s a déjà vu from four years ago: Virtually all national polls have pointed to Biden’s victory, with even greater gaps than for Hillary Clinton in 2016. In tens of thousands of simulations on the FiveThirtyEight statistics page, the incumbent only won ten percent of the time . But reality looks different. In Ohio, Trump even expanded a lead, the former battleground state in the rust belt will probably turn red permanently. Biden also lost in Florida. It had become apparent that it would be very difficult. The Democrat did worse than Clinton in polls among Latinos there, and they lost the state too. A total of 17 percent come from this group of voters, who vote there anyway more conservatively than Latinos in the rest of the country. Many are families of Cuban exiles who are allergic to leftist tendencies. Trump had repeatedly portrayed Biden as a puppet of the left wing of the Democrats in the election campaign. That seems to have worked – not just in Florida.

Successes for Trump and Biden These states are already through

The only bright spot for the Democrats right now is Arizona. Biden will probably win this state back from Trump. If that hadn’t happened, things would look a lot darker for the Democrats. Trump insists that all votes be counted there – but not in the Midwest, where he’s ahead. Instead of a winner, there is now a hanging game for which both candidates had already put armies of lawyers on alert. There will be a squabble over the counting of postal ballot papers. Trump prepared this by repeatedly attacking the state post office, the USPS, as ineffective, changing their boss a few months ago and, above all, repeatedly claiming that postal votes encourage fraud. There is no evidence for this. When it became clear that night that Biden was not going to find a quick path to victory, especially with Florida tipping over to president and Ohio too, the Democrat stepped in front of the cameras with no confetti. He warned that it was neither up to him nor Trump to declare a winner before all the votes are counted. “We have to be patient,” he said, “we will win.”

Counting should be stopped Trump declares himself the election winner

Trump saw and sees it differently. “We won the election,” he shouted afterwards in the White House and announced that he would go to the Supreme Court to stop the postal vote count. In 2016, Trump’s victory was not certain until the early hours of the morning (local time). But this time it’s even tighter. There has never been such a number of postal voters, and the turnout was comparatively high. If this election is really decided by the Supreme Court in the end, it will be largely conservative judges, three of whom Trump himself nominated. All the months of rumor about electoral fraud, the timing of the change in leadership at the all-important post, the conservative seizure of the Supreme Court and Trump’s hastily announced election victory because the election was not yet established, all of this adds up to a gloomy picture due to the situation the day after the election together. The course of events so far suggests something else: Despite the coronavirus, the “Black Lives Matter” movement, impeachment proceedings and much more, hardly anything has changed in terms of the majority of the entire electorate. There is no majority defensive reaction against Trump. The Democrats’ train of thought that among all the applicants for the candidacy, Biden was the one who could stand up against Trump particularly well, was possibly a misjudgment.

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