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Week 11 NFL Picks: Kansas City, Las Vegas meet in AFC West showdown


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Game of the week

Kansas City at Las Vegas
The Chiefs are a whop­ping sev­en-point road favorite even though the Raiders won 40–32 in Kansas City (Week 5). The Chiefs’ defense has allowed less than 18 points in three of the last four games. One thing these AFC West rivals have in com­mon — they’ve both blown out the Bron­cos (by a com­bined 52 points).

Chiefs 34, Raiders 28
Lock of the week

Ten­nessee at Bal­ti­more
What’s hap­pened to the Ravens’ offense? Bal­ti­more ranks 22nd in yards, 31st in pass­ing and 12th in scor­ing after steam­rolling through oppo­nents all of last year. The Ravens are a 6 1/2‑point favorite, but Der­rick Hen­ry is fresh after play­ing 10 days ago and he rush­es for 137 yards in win.

Titans 20, Ravens 19
Upset of the week

L.A. Rams at Tam­pa Bay

The league’s most dom­i­nant defen­sive play­er (Rams defen­sive tack­le Aaron Don­ald) against the league’s most accom­plished quar­ter­back (Tom Brady) on Mon­day. Pass rush/protection will be the decid­ing fac­tor — Tam­pa Bay (33) and the Rams (32) rank sec­ond and third, respec­tive­ly, in sacks.

Rams 27, Buc­ca­neers 21

Around the NFC: Rook­ie receiv­er Justin Jef­fer­son mak­ing instant impact for Min­neso­ta

Jef­fer­son lead­ing way. When Min­neso­ta trad­ed receiv­er Ste­fon Dig­gs to Buf­fa­lo, the return includ­ed the Bills’ first-round pick (No. 22). The Vikings didn’t mess around, draft­ing LSU’s Justin Jef­fer­son to replace Dig­gs and team with Adam Thie­len (tied for league lead with nine touch­down catch­es). Jef­fer­son leads the NFL with an 18.1‑yard aver­age (min­i­mum 40 catch­es) and has 42 recep­tions for 762 yards and three touch­downs. Jef­fer­son has three games of at least 135 yards. The Vikings have won three straight to reboot their sea­son and have their next three at home (Dal­las, Car­oli­na and Jack­sonville — com­bined record of 6–24).

Eagles still lead divi­sion. Philadel­phia remains atop the NFC East with a 3–5‑1 record despite giv­ing up 35 sacks, hav­ing the same num­ber of touch­downs as inter­cep­tions (12) and allow­ing 14 rush­ing touch­downs. The Eagles play at Cleve­land. “We’re all frus­trat­ed,” coach Doug Ped­er­son said. “We know we’re so much bet­ter (than last week’s loss to the Giants) and just got to buck­le in this week. Every­thing is still right in front of us and we’ve got a great oppor­tu­ni­ty on Sun­day.”

Bears are done. Chica­go used mir­rors and its defense to build a 5–1 record. But real­i­ty has arrived for the Bears, who have lost four straight and didn’t get a lift by coach Matt Nagy hand­ing the play-call­ing duties to offen­sive coor­di­na­tor Bill Lazor. Last Mon­day, the Bears man­aged only 149 yards offense in their loss to a Min­neso­ta team that entered allow­ing 413 yards per game. If the sea­son con­tin­ues to fall apart, it’s time to move on from gen­er­al man­ag­er Ryan Pace, who is on his sec­ond coach, and re-enter the quar­ter­back mar­ket.

Around the AFC: Unlike­ly leader in inter­cep­tions, J.C. Jack­son, nears NFL record

Unlike­ly INT leader. A New Eng­land cor­ner­back has inter­cep­tions in five con­sec­u­tive games and it isn’t reign­ing NFL Defen­sive Play­er of the Year Stephon Gilmore. Nope, J.C. Jack­son is the first play­er with a five-game streak since Reg­gie Nel­son in 2015 and he can tie the league record with an inter­cep­tion Sun­day at Hous­ton (it’s been done sev­en times and not since 2003). Jack­son leads the league with six inter­cep­tions and is on pace to become the first dou­ble-dig­it inter­cep­tion play­er since the Charg­ers’ Anto­nio Cro­mar­tie in 2007. The Patri­ots have won two straight after los­ing four in a row.

Herbert’s efforts wast­ed. Charg­ers quar­ter­back Justin Her­bert has 19 touch­down pass­es but is 1–7 as a starter because the defense can’t stop any­body. Los Ange­les has allowed 38, 30, 29, 31, 31 and 29 points in the last six games (five loss­es). This must be the day for the Charg­ers to get right or things will real­ly get bad. Arriv­ing off their bye week are the win­less New York Jets, who are stick­ing with old friend Joe Flac­co due to Sam Darnold’s shoul­der injury.

Top-heavy con­fer­ence. The AFC could have as many as eight teams after Sun­day with at least sev­en wins. There is no mid­dle class this year in the con­fer­ence — nine teams are 6–3 or bet­ter and five teams have two or few­er wins. Things will get semi-clear­er Sun­day for the six 6–3 teams — Indi­anapo­lis (vs. Green Bay), Las Vegas (vs. Kansas City), Mia­mi (at the Bron­cos), Baltimore/Tennessee (play each oth­er) and Cleve­land (vs. Philadel­phia). The Browns and Titans are cur­rent­ly out of play­off posi­tion. Mean­while, in the NFC, only six teams have a win­ning record.

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